The Best War Ever

Thursday, September 01, 2005

More bad news

t's not like President Bush really needed more bad news. What with Hurricane Katrina, his sagging job approval ratings, and more people siding with Cindy Sheehan than with him, he must feel like he's living under a dark cloud. That cloud just grew a bit darker as the Census Bureau released a report (160pg PDF) which showed, for the fourth year in a row, poverty has grown in the US.

Overall, there were 37 million Americans living in poverty in 2004 (2004 poverty thresholds provided here). This was an increase in 1.1 million people from 2003. Poverty rose in all ethnic groups save one — Asian-Americans — where poverty dropped two percentage points from 2003 to 2004. The poverty rate among the elderly dropped also from 2003. But that was the extent of the good news. Poverty rates were unchanged for blacks (24.7 percent) and Hispanics (21.9 percent) from 2003. The main increase was for non-Hispanic whites which experienced an increase to 8.6 percent, up from 8.2 percent in 2003.

When the government began measuring poverty, back in 1959, over 39 million people (or a little over 22 percent of the population) were living in poverty. From that point, until 2000, the overall poverty has generally decreased year to year. Two significant exceptions, before the current streak, were five years between 1979 and 1983 (from 11.4 to 15.2 percent) and four years between 1990 and 1993 (from 12.8 to 15.1 percent). Charles Nelson, an assistant division head with the Census Bureau, noted the increase in poverty rates came at a time the economy was reportedly doing well last year, adding an additional 2.2 million jobs. Nelson speculated the disconnect between more jobs and increased poverty might be due to employers not immediately filling jobs created by a more robust economy:

"I guess what happened last year was kind of similar to what happened in the early 1990s where you had a recession that was officially over and then you had several years after that of rising poverty. These numbers do reflect changes between 2003 and 2004. They don't reflect any improvements in the economy in 2005."

Tim Smeeding, an economics professor from Syracuse University, believes the disconnect might be explained by a population, particularly in the elderly category, which relies less upon earning a pay check and is more dependent upon capital gains growth. According to Smeeding, most of the income produced by the growing economy over the past few years has gone "to higher income people and has taken the form of capital income, interest, rents, and dividends." Also, if you rely upon what Nelson says about real job growth lagging behind economic growth, the picture doesn't really brighten up any. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gains realized in real earnings by American workers are undercut by the rising cost of living for the average American.

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